Create awareness on human forecasting behavior

Part two of our blog series on improved forecasting using cognitive insights

Cognitive forecast enrichments
Cognitive forecast enrichments in a nutshell

In our first blog we introduced our vision on smart-touch forecasting. A key element of this approach is what we call ‘cognitive forecast enrichments’, in which we nudge the planner to make better enrichment decisions.

To take the planner along in providing effective and efficient enrichments, we recommend the following four steps:

  1. Create awareness
  2. Assess previously performed enrichments
  3. Activate planners in providing effective enrichments
  4. Automate predictable enrichments where possible

This blog focuses on creating awareness.

Realizing the pitfalls of human forecasting behavior

The forecast enrichment process of many companies is still in the early stages. It is often unclear which person made the enrichments, or the forecast history including the different enrichments are not properly tracked. By analyzing the enrichment process and its different steps, we aim to uncover the pitfalls of human forecasting behavior. However, how do we analyze the enrichment process?

Performing a quantitative analysis is one of the first step s to evaluate your enrichment process. In such a quantitative analysis, we touch on the following topics:

Overall enrichment process, statistical forecasting, enrichment logic, human biases, organization set-up, effective enrichment, tool set-up, cognitive automation

By taking a detailed look at the (type of) enrichment process in place, the stakeholders involved, the tools that are being used and the continuous improvement cycle, we can identify the pain points in the process that can be improved by means of for example coaching or process re-design.

Building enrichment capabilities

Next to the qualitative analysis, awareness can be created by means of a training session. We provide a one-day training ‘Smart-touch forecasting’ which is designed to introduce the key concepts and core requirements needed to design and implement robust forecasting enrichment processes. This will drive your business performance by balancing the use of advanced analytics with focused value-adding enrichments. The EyeOn master class ‘Smart touch forecasting’ can both be facilitated in-house and as a standard master class in which multiple companies participate simultaneously.

After creating awareness, it is important to also act and assess your enrichment performance. We will discuss in our next blogpost how we propose to evaluate the added value of your enrichment process.

If you have questions or would like to get more information on how to create awareness in your organization, feel free to contact Bregje van der Staak!

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