Introduction to our blog series on improved forecasting using cognitive insights
Due to increasing data availability, advanced data science techniques such as machine learning have become a powerful tool to reduce forecasting bias and create more accurate statistical forecasts. However, in practice, human planners still include additional information, not known to the statistical forecasting algorithm, to come to a final forecast.
Integrating planner enrichments to reduce forecasting bias
Despite efforts over the last decade to improve statistical forecasting capabilities and include more input data, this forecast enrichment process is still of eminent importance in most companies. But to really complement the statistical forecast the enrichments should be of high quality. However, research shows that planners do not always add value to the statistical forecast when enriching, and can even make the forecast worse. This inaccurate enriched forecast causes production re-planning that creates purchasing, financing, and scheduling difficulties, next to service level issues and imbalanced inventories. Only by enriching in a structured and focused way planners can truly add value.
At EyeOn we believe that we can integrate the planner enrichments in a smart way. By creating smart-touch planning solutions, we can automate the forecasting process for products that are easy to forecast, we can provide recommendations where it is more difficult, and flag where human intervention is needed. We call this process smart-touch forecasting.
As shown in the figure below, planners obtain a statistical forecast from the planning system and receive feedback on their enrichment behavior while interacting with the planning tool. This combined effort of planning system and planner results in the best forecasting performance.
The challenge of human bias
When evaluating the enrichments of human planners, we need to be aware of their cognitive biases. As humans are not capable of dealing with too large amounts of data, they can provide suggestions that are irrational.
Decreasing human forecasting bias with data-driven nudging
Therefore a key element of our smart-touch forecasting approach is what we call ‘cognitive forecast enrichments’, in which we nudge the planner to make better enrichment decisions.
In order to take the planner along in providing effective and efficient enrichments, we recommend the following four steps:
- Create awareness
- Assess previously performed enrichments
- Activate planners in providing effective enrichments
- Automate predictable enrichments where possible
The road towards smart-touch forecasting
The blog series ‘Improved Forecasting Using Cognitive Insights’ will dive into each of these four building blocks in the coming months. Each month, we will present a part of our approach in building an effective forecasting enrichment process. Read here the next blog on creating ‘Awareness’!
Are you ready to discover how smart-touch forecasting can build a solid foundation for your demand planning as well as bring more value to the role of your demand planners? The Fast Forecast Scan provides you with rapid insights into the main demand characteristics and forecastability of your business. It reveals the highest possible statistical forecast accuracy that can be reached and identifies the main opportunities for improvement. All in just a few days. Watch the on-demand demo of the Fast Scan here.
If you have questions or would like to discuss your enrichment process, please contact Edward Versteijnen!